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EUR: Beset by Contradictions

  • Markets have treated the euro kindly since the start of the year, defying our expectations: EURUSD rose from 1.29 to above 1.36 within the past three weeks.
  • The move likely reflects the effects of some short covering, (relatively) benign sovereign debt auctions, a renewed promise of bold policy action and the perception of a hawkish shift by the ECB. However, several fundamental contradictions continue to weigh on the euro:
    1. an initial “bailout,” followed by a promise of a later “bail-in,” defeats the efficacy of the former. What is more, such delay increases the size of[...]

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