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Dearth of Commodity Bargains Delays Chinese Shopping

  • Slowing growth amid rising inflation, interest rate hikes and credit tightening have curtailed commodity imports into China. This dynamic factors into our current neutral commodity position as of early May.
  • China’s real GDP growth—averaging close to 10% since the 1970s— looks to be unsustainable, particularly given the recent unprecedented surge in state-directed lending.
  • Commodity consumption looks to pick up in H2 2011 and into 2012, but will likely tail off in 2013.

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