Continuum Economics

April 19, 2024

FX Daily Strategy: N America, April 18th

April 19, 2024 9:01 AM UTC

Japanese CPI Continue to Moderate
Underlying weak JPY trend only likely to turn with lower US yields
GBP downside risks on retail sales
EUR/NOK due to turn lower

Sub Sahara Africa: Country Risk Ratings

April 19, 2024 9:00 AM UTC

We provide country risk reviews for Sub Sahara Africa countries including S Africa/Nigeria/Ethophia/Sudan and Angola/DRC.

Chart EUR/CHF Update: Sharp losses giving way to a sharp bounce - studies under pressure

April 19, 2024 8:14 AM UTC

The sharp spike lower has bounced smartly from support at 0.9550/60

Chart USD/CHF Update: Consolidating sharp losses - studies under pressure

April 19, 2024 8:02 AM UTC

The anticipated test lower has bounced smartly from above 0.9000

Chart EUR/GBP Update: Cautious in range - studies tracking higher

April 19, 2024 7:52 AM UTC

Little change, as mixed/negative intraday studies keep near-term sentiment cautious

Chart EUR/USD Update: Choppy in range - background studies under pressure

April 19, 2024 7:40 AM UTC

Minor gains have been pushed back from beneath resistance at 1.0695/00

Chart GBP/USD Update: Back in range following a move to fresh 2023 low

April 19, 2024 7:22 AM UTC

Consolidation has given way to a test below congestion support at 1.2400

Chart EUR/AUD Update: Settled back in consolidation below 1.6600 level

April 19, 2024 7:22 AM UTC

Settled back in consolidation below the 1.6600 level following spike to retest the 1.6680 resistance

Chart NOK/SEK Update: Settled back from test of parity level

April 19, 2024 6:56 AM UTC

Limited on break of the parity level as prices settled back to consolidate gains from the .9710, March YTD low

Chart GBP/JPY Update: Extending choppy trade above 190.00 level

April 19, 2024 6:47 AM UTC

No follow-through on break of the 191.30 support

GBP, EUR, JPY, CHF flows: GBP little changed after retail sales, scope for risk recovery

April 19, 2024 6:33 AM UTC

UK retail sales remain quite flat, GBP little affected. Risk sell off overnight may be further reversed with tension dissipated

Chart AUD/JPY Update: Under pressure, room for deeper pullback from 100.80 high

April 19, 2024 6:32 AM UTC

No follow-through on break of the strong support at the 99.00/98.60 area

Chart USD/CNH Update: Scope to extend pullback from the 7.2830 high

April 19, 2024 5:47 AM UTC

Little change, as prices extend consolidation above the 7.2340 support

Chart USD/INR Update: Further gains to fresh all-time high at 83.5750

April 19, 2024 5:34 AM UTC

Higher at the open and break to fresh high reached 83.5750 all-time high

Asia Summary and Highlights 19 Apr

April 19, 2024 4:10 AM UTC

Israel retaliated with potential missile and drones attack in Iran
But Iran said "there have been no airstrikes, only shot-down quadcopters"
Japan National y/y CPI at 2.7%, down from 2.8%

FX Daily Strategy: Europe, April 18th

April 19, 2024 4:05 AM UTC

Japanese CPI Continue to Moderate
Underlying weak JPY trend only likely to turn with lower US yields
GBP downside risks on retail sales
EUR/NOK due to turn lower

AUD/USD flows: Equities in a see of Red, so as the Aussie

April 19, 2024 3:59 AM UTC

Equities in a sea of red globally on geopolitical fear

USD/JPY flows: Dropped along Isreal's "drones"

April 19, 2024 3:48 AM UTC

Israel retaliated with potential missile and drones attack in Iran
But Iran said "there have been no airstrikes, only shot-down quadcopters"
Japan National y/y CPI at 2.7%, down from 2.8%

Chart AUD/USD Update: Break to fresh low see room to .6350/39 next

April 19, 2024 3:27 AM UTC

Shallow bounce above the .6442 resistance has seen prices giving way to fresh selling pressure

Chart USD/IDR Updates: Extending gains

April 19, 2024 3:14 AM UTC

Rebound from 16159 low extending gains through the 16265 high to reach fresh YTD high

Chart USD/THB Update: Poised for retest of 36.90 high and bull extension

April 19, 2024 2:53 AM UTC

Pressure remains on the upside and clear break above the 36.80 congestion expose the 36.90 YTD high to retest

Chart USD/KRW Update: Rebound return focus to the 1400.00 high

April 19, 2024 2:44 AM UTC

Corrective pullback from the 1400.00 high held firm at the 1371.00 support

Chart USD/SGD Update: Rebound return focus to the 1.3670 high

April 19, 2024 2:27 AM UTC

No follow-through on break of the 1.3600 level with rebound from the 1.3578 low returning focus to the 1.3670 high

Chart GBP/USD Update: Under pressure

April 19, 2024 1:59 AM UTC

Coming under fresh selling pressure after bounce attempt was checked at the 1.2485

Chart EUR/USD Update: Under pressure, focus return to 1.0600 low

April 19, 2024 1:42 AM UTC

Coming under fresh selling pressure after corrective bounce stalled ahead of the 1.0695/1.0700 resistance

Chart EUR/JPY Update: Extending consolidation below 165.00/35 highs

April 19, 2024 12:58 AM UTC

Break above the 164.00 level has seen gains to approach the 165.00 level

Chart USD/JPY Update: Limited pullback from 154.79 high

April 19, 2024 12:47 AM UTC

Consolidating test of a 10-month equidistance channel from the July 2023 low at the 154.79 high

Chart NZD/USD Update: Consolidating at the .5900 level

April 19, 2024 12:33 AM UTC

Settled back in consolidation at the .5900 level after bounce attempt stalled ahead of the .5940 resistance

Chart AUD/USD Update: Limited bounce from the .6390 low

April 19, 2024 12:12 AM UTC

Little change, after failure to sustain bounce above resistance at the .6442 low of February

Asia Open - Overnight Highlights

April 19, 2024 12:00 AM UTC

EMERGING ASIA
EM currencies perform individually against the USD as the greenback retraced earlier losses on strong manufacturing index. SGD saw the largest losses of 0.12%, followed by CNH 0.08%, HKD, PHP and INR 0.01%; while the biggest winner is KRW by 1.00%, TWD 0.34%, IDR 0.28%, MYR 0.16% and TH

April 18, 2024

FX Daily Strategy: Asia, April 18th

April 18, 2024 9:00 PM UTC

JPY may get some support from Japanese CPI
Underlying weak JPY trend only likely to turn with lower US yields
GBP downside risks on retail sales
EUR/NOK due to turn lower

North American Summary and Highlights 18 Apr

April 18, 2024 7:56 PM UTC

Overview - The USD saw modest gains with the help of stronger data from the Philly Fed manufacturing survey.

U.S. Fed's Bostic - No need to ease if labor market stays strong

April 18, 2024 4:21 PM UTC

Chart USD/BRL Update: Balanced at fresh 2024 year highs - studies remain positive

April 18, 2024 4:11 PM UTC

Anticipated gains have reached fresh 12-month highs around 5.2900

Preview: Due April 23 - U.S. March New Home Sales - Stable through Q1, downside risk in Q2

April 18, 2024 4:09 PM UTC

We expect a March new home sales total of 665k, almost unchanged from both February’s 662k and January’s 664k. Looking into Q2, some slowing is to be expected.

Chart USD/CAD Update: Leaning lower

April 18, 2024 3:52 PM UTC

Anticipated losses have broken below 1.3800 to reach 1.3760, where oversold intraday studies are prompting short-term reactions

Preview: Due April 23 - U.S. March S&P PMIs - Manufacturing to rise, Services to slip

April 18, 2024 3:34 PM UTC

We expect March’s S and P PMIs to show a pick-up in manufacturing to 53.0 from 51.9, reaching its highest since May 2022, but a third straight slowing in services to 51.0 from 51.7.

FX Daily Strategy: APAC, April 18th

April 18, 2024 3:17 PM UTC

JPY may get some support from Japanese CPI
Underlying weak JPY trend only likely to turn with lower US yields
GBP downside risks on retail sales
EUR/NOK due to turn lower

Chart AUD/USD Update: Cautious trade above support at 0.6400/10

April 18, 2024 2:23 PM UTC

The anticipated test of resistance at the 0.6443 monthly low of 13 February is giving way to consolidation

U.S. March Existing Home Sales - Corrects strong February rise, further slippage likely

April 18, 2024 2:10 PM UTC

March existing home sales with a 4.3% decline corrected a sharp 9.5% February increase. 2023 also saw a sharp February increase that was gradually reversed and more during the rest of the year. As rate cut hopes fade, existing home sales look set to slip further.

Chart EUR/JPY Update: Consolidating at highs - studies coming under pressure

April 18, 2024 2:09 PM UTC

Still little change, as prices extend cautious trade beneath resistance at 165.00

Chart USD/JPY Update: Further consolidation at 34-year highs - bullish daily studies fading

April 18, 2024 1:44 PM UTC

Still little change in trade

Chart USD Index DXY Update: Under pressure - room for lower

April 18, 2024 1:38 PM UTC

The anticipated break below 106.00 has reached 105.75~

USD flows: USD well supported after Philly Fed strength

April 18, 2024 1:12 PM UTC

USD marginally higher after Philly Fed, with highest manufacturing index for 2 years

U.S. Initial Claims stay low and stable, Philly Fed picks up in April

April 18, 2024 12:57 PM UTC

Initial claims are unchanged at 212k, still suggesting a tight labor market in the April non-farm payroll survey week. April’s Philly Fed manufacturing survey at 15.5 from 3.2 is the highest since April 2022 and does follow recent signs of improvement in the ISM and S and P national manufacturing

Chart USD/RUB Update: Balanced at highs - critical resistance at 95.4750

April 18, 2024 11:36 AM UTC

Little change, as prices extend pressure on resistance at the 94.5925 Fibonacci retracement

Chart EUR/PLN Update: Room for a minor test lower

April 18, 2024 11:13 AM UTC

The pullback from just beneath resistance at 4.3500 is extending

Chart USD/ZAR Update: Further consolidation. Daily studies under pressure

April 18, 2024 10:19 AM UTC

Still little change, as prices extend consolidation following the test of resistance within 19.0000 - 19.1050