As outlined in our most recent Quarterly Outlook, China continues to fight what we believe is a losing battle to maintain high (7%) growth and make markets conform to official objectives while enhancing reform and stability. Having just posted a 7% y/y growth print for Q2, the government seems to be prioritizing growth over reform—and the economy's ultimate stability. What will policy makers do in the second half of 2015 to defend their credibility as economic stewards?
Please join Don Hanna (Managing Director) and other members of the Roubini Research Team as they review the causes and consequences of China’s stock-market meltdown, assess the prospects for reform and gauge the risks facing the Chinese economy over the medium term. Among other topics, the call will cover:
Stimulus: What fiscal and monetary policy measures are likely to be deployed in the coming months? Have policy makers reached for the credit-intensive growth playbook once again?
Reform and Growth: Has the government jettisoned attempts at meaningful economic reform in the interest of growth and stability? Can the state stomach the higher risk of volatility that would accompany a shift toward a truly market-centered system? What are the implications for other economies and markets of China's increasingly fraught juggling act?
To learn more about our views ahead of the Q&A session, check out some of Roubini’s recent research:
China: Short-Term Stability, Long-Term Risk (Jul 10, 2015)
China A-Shares: The Bull Market Is Over (Jun 30, 2015)
Chinese Equity: ‘A Shares’ Risk Skewed to the Downside (Jun 16, 2015)