4CAST RGE

REPLAY—Global Outlook: Time for a Reload

Please join Rachel Ziemba, Kevin Harris and other members of the 4CAST-RGE research team as they provide signposts through the maelstrom of uncertainty in the U.S., Europe and China.

Meeting date:
September 27th, 2016
Start time:
09:00 AM EDT
Duration:
1 Hour

OVERVIEW

U.S. election: Donald Trump makes frequent claims about changes he would make if elected President. Which of these could really come to pass? What are the implications for the economy? What are the implications of his fiscally expansionary policy for markets?

Fiscal policy: Central banks seem to be running out of ammo. Could fiscal policy replace monetary policy as the main engine of growth? How could this affect global markets?

Fed and U.S. economy: Despite softness in the labor market and growth, the U.S. output gap is gradually closing. What does this mean for the Fed’s policy-rate path? How might the increase in oil prices play into this?

European risk: Could Italy’s upcoming constitutional referendum lead to the collapse of the government? Might this be the first step toward "Italexit"? Meanwhile, the UK economy has bounced back, but are Brexit risks being mispriced?

China’s bumpy landing: China continues its bumpy rebalancing process—a volatile evolution with positive and negative global implications. Is China and, thus, the global economy set for a round of stimulus and slowdown?

Markets: September price drops were consistent with our low/falling growth forecasts, including the roll-over underway in corporate profits. They also confirmed, at least for two major DMs (U.S. and UK), our observation of secular stagnation in asset prices. What might it take to move prices out of this channel? Are EM assets still a buy?

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