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The Falling Dollar, Oil, and Pricing Geopolitical Risk in Financial Markets with Rachel Ziemba (Hidden Forces) / September 18, 2017

In this Market Forces segment, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Emerging Markets Analyst Rachel Ziemba. The conversation begins with a look towards North Korea and the geopolitical crisis unfolding there. The conversation then shifts to the falling dollar and the forward volatility of the dollar carry-trade. They end their discussion with energy markets, specifically the chronically low price of oil and its effects on Saudi Arabia, with its dwindling foreign exchange reserves and fragile geopolitical position.


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The Fed Outlook and Jackson Hole (Bloomberg Radio) / August 21, 2017

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Gabriel Stein, 4CAST-RGE’s developed-market research team head, says the Bundesbank is confused yet happy about the ECB’s one hawkish move. (Bloomberg Radio) / June 8, 2017

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Gabriel Stein, 4CAST-RGE’s developed-market research team head, says the Bundesbank is confused yet happy about the ECB’s one hawkish move. (Bloomberg Radio) / June 8, 2017

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OPEC Meets to Consider Oil Production (BBC World Service) / June 2, 2017

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U.K. Pre-Election (Bloomberg radio) / April 26, 2017

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Gabriel Stein discusses the economic outlook on Bloomberg radio / February 27, 2017

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Rachel Ziemba appearance on Morning Macro / February 17, 2017

Rachel Ziemba of 4Cast RGE appears on Morning Macro for a conversation that ranges from Chinese inflation, through insight into what’s going on with oil prices, to how Trump’s troubles with Russia could be hindering the domestic economy in the US. (Source: Morning Macro)


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Exuberant Optimism Exaggerates Growth Outlook / January 11, 2017

Uncertainty—economic or political—is supposed to breed pessimism. Yet, political uncertainty is greater than for many years, and business sentiment in the developed world is booming. Some indicators justify rising confidence, but, as Gabriel Stein argues, it is almost certainly excessive. (Source: Bloomberg)


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The Brexit Landscape / January 11, 2017

Gabriel Stein discusses how Brexit will likely unfold and the landscape as we expect to see it after the conclusion of the two years of negotiations. (Source: Bloomberg)


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LatAm’s Feeble Recovery / October 17, 2016

Latin America will grow at positive rates in 2017 for the first time since 2014; but the recovery will be largely driven by improvements in domestic demand in countries that are coming from recessions (Argentina and Brazil). Persisting vulnerabilities combined a sluggish global environment suggest the recovery will be feeble. Ariel also discusses the political trends in the region and the apparent shift away from populism (as opposed to the rest of the world). (Source: Bloomberg)


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Articles

Market is not "fully aware" about electoral risk, analysts say / Money Times / October 10th, 2017

In a report, economist Pedro Tuesta ponders that while polls suggest an electorate eager for a centrist figure, such as João Doria or an outsider, they themselves indicate the possibility of a populist election.

"In view of this, we recommend that investors be very cautious about their positions in Brazil, although we recognize that the rally will probably continue until we can know which candidates Brazil will have in 2018," says Roubini Global Economics. For Tuesta, the enthusiasm will disappear without a viable centrist name for the lawsuit.

Rachel Ziemba comments on the fundamentals on base metals including copper / Bloomberg / September 5th, 2017

A quick look at the last 30 years shows how copper got its reputation for leading global economic activity. With most economists expecting global growth to pick up in the next few years, some the metal’s rise so far in 2017 may be justifiable. But the price action may have outstripped fundamentals, according to analysts including Rachel Ziemba at Roubini Global Economics. The global investment cycle is still moderate and the overall fundamental outlook for copper doesn’t seem to have changed much, they said.

4CAST's Pedro Tuesta quotes on the impact of NAFTA talks on Grain producers / Reuters / August 18, 2017

Pedro Tuesta, a Latin American economist for 4Cast Roubini Global Economics, said that "when there is a rise in trade, it is well-known that those who can produce more will benefit the most. It is a question of productivity."

OPEC wants oil above $50, but US shale producers won't play along / CNBC / August 2nd, 2017

"U.S. demand seems pretty steady despite low oil prices and the lowest summer gas prices in years," said Rachel Ziemba, managing director of emerging markets research at 4CAST-RGE. "I'm a tad more constructive on India and China."

White House should tighten sanctions on North Korea, experts say / MarketWatch / July 28th, 2017

Rachel Ziemba, senior research analyst at Roubini Global Economics, warned the use of key economic issues as leverages for China to curb North Korea can pose challenges to bilateral relations.

“The way in which key economic terms and legal precedents, particularly around things like currency manipulation, were being used as a trade-off, and if anything, China currency adjustment manipulation has been on the side of benefiting the U.S. trade,” Ziemba said. “Linkage itself is not bad, but the whole grand bargain looks quite challenging to me.”

Gulf Bond Issues To Set New Highs As Cash Crunch Continues / MEES / July 21st, 2017

"In the early part of the oil correction, GCC countries, especially Saudi Arabia, chose to finance the adjustment via reserves rather than issuing debt. They now realize that drawing down reserves reduces future spending and investment capacity and can crowd out the private sector. Some countries are now choosing wisely to invest in long-term investment via long-term financing to better match their assets and liabilities," Rachel Ziemba, Managing Director of Research at 4CAST-RGE, tells MEES.

What’s The Outlook For The U.S. Yield Curve? / Investing.com / June 28th, 2017

The Treasury market seems to be pricing in a softer outlook for US economy, based on the flattening of the yield curve. Although the Fed’s official policy outlook is to continue raising rates, “the policy consensus among FOMC members seems to be eroding,” notes a report published yesterday by Roubini Global Economics.

Temer should continue until 2018 with disfigured reforms / Money Times / June 13th, 2017

"We increased the likelihood of our baseline scenario (delayed and diluted reforms) from 55 percent to 60 percent and also raised the likelihood of our negative scenario (total reform standoff) from 5 percent to 10 percent. In the same way, we now see a lower likelihood that Temer will be replaced. We see a 30% chance (previously 40%) that it will continue with minimally diluted reforms," said economists Pedro Tuesta and Rachel Ziemba.

China’s Downgrade Reflects Fundamentals / Emerging Market Views / May 26th, 2017

This week, global ratings agency Moody’s downgraded China’s sovereign rating to A1 from Aa3, citing expectations of financial conditions eroding in coming years amid slower growth and rising debt. This move was largely anticipated by market participants and to a certain effect had little impact on onshore or global markets. “We expect other agencies to follow suit,” Paulina Argudin, a senior analyst with 4CAST-RGE, a financial analytics and research firm, co-wrote in a note to clients on May 24th.

Saudi's sovereign wealth fund takes center stage during Trump visit / S&P Global / May 23rd, 2017

"Expect [the] PIF to get a larger share of savings, and face pressure to deliver quickly on investments. With fiscal deficits, Saudi Arabia isn't accumulating assets any more and would only do so if oil moved up over $60-plus Brent," says Rachel Ziemba, managing director of emerging markets at Roubini Global Economics, a London-based financial analysis firm.

Brazil slowly developing into a fintech powerhouse as political scandal swirls / CNBC / May 20th, 2017

"I think [Temer's woes] will delay investments across a number of sectors as it delays reform implementation," said Rachel Ziemba, managing director of emerging markets research at 4CAST-RGE.

This Is What Can Kill the Emerging Market Rally / Bloomberg / May 10th, 2017

"I still think that the wide output gaps in some commodity exporters will lead to continued inflows, especially to local bonds," said Rachel Ziemba, the New York-based head of emerging markets at 4CAST-RGE. "However, if China keeps tightening, it’s not going to be pretty."

Saudi Shifts Investment Strategy / MEES / April 14th, 2017

Rachel Ziemba comments on Saudi Arabia's foreign investment strategy, its new sovereign fund and its domestic economic growth.

OPEC Oil Cut Extension Likely? / Barron's / April 12th, 2017

“We don’t see the Russians able to cut production much further and we see limited upside for oil this year,” said Rachel Ziemba, an emerging markets-focused economist at 4CAST-RGE, a London-based research and strategy company. She made the comment on Bloomberg Radio Wednesday morning.

3 Numbers: ADP data to show slower growth in US payrolls in February / Saxo Group / March 8th, 2017

Roubini Global Economics is projecting that GDP will advance 0.7% this year after falling 3.6% in 2016. Meantime, Brazil’s stock market has been anticipating recovery for months. The Bovespa Index has surged more than 30% over the past 12 months, largely on expectations that the recession had run its course.

Events

Presentation by Roubini Global Economics on risks affecting Canada

March 28, 2017