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15 May 2025 - 07:17
National account data delivered yet another upside surprise both in terms of the latest monthly figure and also the associated Q1 update. Indeed, February GDP, rather than consolidating in the March GDP release with a flat m/m reading, instead grew by 0.2% (Figure 1), a fifth successive non-negati
15 May 2025 - 07:15
The alternative hard landing scenario in China has been reduced significantly with the trade truce with the U.S. However, China will still have to cope with a minimum 30% overall tariff, with only around a 10% reduction in the fentanyl tariff likely to be agreed in the coming months. Our baselin