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March 19, 2024

Chart USD/IDR Updates: Extending gains
Paying Article

March 19, 2024 3:21 AM UTC

Further extend gains from the 15550 support to reach the 15700 level

Chart USD/THB Update: Consolidating at 36.00 level, further gains limited
Paying Article

March 19, 2024 3:04 AM UTC

Settled into consolidation at the 36.00 level as prices unwind the deep overbought intraday studies

Chart USD/KRW Update: Pressuring the 1337.00/1340.00 resistance
Paying Article

March 19, 2024 2:47 AM UTC

 Further extending sharp rally gtom the 1310.00/1307.00 support to reach strong resistance at the 1337.00/1340.00 area

Chart USD/SGD Update: Consolidating test of 1.3400 level
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March 19, 2024 2:05 AM UTC

Pressure remains on the upside as prices extend gains from the 1.3270 low

Chart GBP/USD Update: Extending losses
Paying Article

March 19, 2024 1:40 AM UTC

Prices remains under pressure and break of the 1.2744 support see the 1.2700 level now within reach. 

Chart EUR/USD Update: Still heavy, room for deeper pullback
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March 19, 2024 1:28 AM UTC

Prices remains under pressure and clear break of the 1.0900 level see room for deeper pullback from the 1.0980 high

Chart EUR/JPY Update: Lower in consolidation, but still supported
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March 19, 2024 1:12 AM UTC

Settling back in consolidation from the 162.68 high as prices unwind the overbought intraday studies 

Chart USD/JPY Update: Pressuring 149.20/50 resistance
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March 19, 2024 12:53 AM UTC

Extending gains as break above the 148.80 resistance shift focus to the strong resistance at the 149.20/149.50

Chart NZD/USD Update: Still heavy but further losses limited
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March 19, 2024 12:36 AM UTC

Break of the .6100 level see prices consolidating above the .6070 support

Chart AUD/USD Update: Still heavy, room to the .6525/00 support
Paying Article

March 19, 2024 12:15 AM UTC

Prices remains under pressure and scope remains for deeper pullback

March 18, 2024

FX Daily Strategy: Asia, March 19th
Paying Article

March 18, 2024 10:00 PM UTC

BoJ the main focus
Majority expect no change in policy which would likely mean small JPY decline
The minority view of a rate hike this month would have a bigger JPY positive impact
Canadian CPI to weigh modestly on the CAD
GBP vulnerable as positions reached new highs

North American Summary and Highlights 18 Mar
Freemium Article

March 18, 2024 7:34 PM UTC

Overview - In a quiet day the USD ended a little firmer versus the EUR, but was little changed elsewhere.  

Preview: Due March 28 - Canada January GDP - Bounce led by end of strike activity
Paying Article

March 18, 2024 7:12 PM UTC

We expect Canadian GDP to increase by 0.4% in January, matching an estimate made with December’s report. This would be the strongest rise since January 2023, but the strong year ago data would still see yr/yr growth slipping, to 0.8% from 1.1%.

Chartbook: US Chart 10 Year Yield: Limited tests higher - Yield prices to come under fresh pressure
Paying Article

March 18, 2024 6:58 PM UTC

The test of support at the 4.000% break level and the 3.928% Fibonacci retracement has bounced from the 3.783% monthly low of 28 December

Chart USD/CAD Update: Room for a USD- and CAD-driven test higher
Freemium Article

March 18, 2024 4:57 PM UTC

Still little change, as prices extend cautious trade beneath resistance at 1.3550

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Sweden Riksbank Preview: Early Easing Discussion Clearer But Nothing Definitive
Paying Article

March 18, 2024 4:20 PM UTC

It is ever clearer that the Riksbank has accepted that it can and should make its policy stance less contractionary, at least in conventional terms.  In its last decision, at the start of February, keeping policy at 4%, albeit increasing the pace of bond sales from SEK 5 billion to 6.5 billion per

Preview: Due March 25 - U.S. February New Home Sales - Potential for further gains
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March 18, 2024 2:57 PM UTC

We expect a February new home sales total of 690k, which would be a 4.4% increase if January’s 1.5% increase to 661k is unrevised. This would be a third straight increase if still below 2023’s high of 728k seen in July.

Chart AUD/USD Update: Consolidating - studies under pressure
Paying Article

March 18, 2024 2:36 PM UTC

Little change, as rising intraday studies keep near-term sentiment cautious

Chart EUR/JPY Update: Focus on 163.00
Paying Article

March 18, 2024 2:29 PM UTC

The anticipated break above 162.00 has reached 162.65/70

Preview: Due March 19 - U.S. February Housing Starts and Permits - Starts to rebound from weather-depressed January
Paying Article

March 18, 2024 2:12 PM UTC

We expect February housing starts to rise by 18.0% to 1570k after a 14.8% January decline that was probably due to bad weather. We expect permits, less sensitive to weather, to rise by 1.4% to 1510k after falling by 0.3% in January. 

Chart USD/JPY Update: Limited scope into any break above 149.20
Paying Article

March 18, 2024 2:08 PM UTC

Little change, as prices extend pressure on strong resistance at 149.20

U.S. March NAHB Homebuilders Index - Recovery continues
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March 18, 2024 2:07 PM UTC

March’s NAHB homebuilders’ index has continued its recent recovery, rising to 51 from 48, a fifth straight gain and the highest level since June 2023.

Chart USD Index DXY Update: Pressuring 103.50 - daily studies edging higher
Paying Article

March 18, 2024 1:44 PM UTC

Little change, as prices extend pressure on congestion resistance at 103.50

Preview: Due March 19 - Canada February CPI - Pause after a significant January slowing
Paying Article

March 18, 2024 12:35 PM UTC

We expect February Canadian CPI to pause after seeing a significant dip in January, rising to 3.0% yr/yr from 2.9% in January, though still below December’s stronger 3.4%. We expect only marginal progress lower on the BoC’s core rates to follow more significant progress seen in January. 

Chart USD/ZAR Update: Strong resistance at 19.0000
Paying Article

March 18, 2024 12:30 PM UTC

Cautious trade around 18.7500 has given way to the anticipated break

Chart EUR/CAD Update: Cautious trade
Paying Article

March 18, 2024 11:40 AM UTC

Little change, as flat intraday studies and mixed daily readings keep near-term sentiment cautious

European Summary and Highlights 18 Mar
Paying Article

March 18, 2024 11:31 AM UTC

The EUR made small gains against most currencies in a quiet European morning session.

Psychology for major markets Mar 18
Paying Article

March 18, 2024 11:15 AM UTC

Central bank meetings in focus, mild USD upside risks

FX Weekly Strategy: March 18th-22nd
Paying Article

March 18, 2024 9:57 AM UTC

FOMC the main focus – some risk of a USD positive impact
BoJ may signal the start of the tightening cycle
BoE can start to turn more dovish
SNB has potential to weaken the CHF

Chart EUR/CHF Update: Pressuring strong resistance at 0.9632 - studies improving
Paying Article

March 18, 2024 9:23 AM UTC

Still little change

Chart USD/CHF Update: Room for a test of critical resistance at 0.8885/95
Freemium Article

March 18, 2024 9:11 AM UTC

Little change, as prices extend consolidation above the 0.8820 low of 15 March

Chart EUR/GBP Update: Consoldating
Paying Article

March 18, 2024 8:47 AM UTC

Still little change

Chart EUR/USD Update: Consolidating - prices remain under pressure
Paying Article

March 18, 2024 8:39 AM UTC

Little change, as unwinding oversold intraday studies keep near-term sentiment cautious

Chart GBP/USD Update: Consolidating, but daily studies under pressure
Freemium Article

March 18, 2024 8:32 AM UTC

Little change

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China: Unbalanced Growth
Paying Article

March 18, 2024 8:28 AM UTC

The February monthly data shows unbalanced growth.  Industrial production and public investment picked up, but retail sales slowed and residential property remains a negative drag on GDP.  While H1 GDP growth will be ok, it will likely slow in H2 and we still stick to a forecast of 4.4% for 2024 a

IMM Commitment of Traders Reports w/e Mar 12th
Paying Article

March 18, 2024 8:25 AM UTC

Net speculative positioning very long GBP, short AUD. Net long GBP position largest since at least 2012.

Chartbook: US Chart Gold (XAU): Bullish break to fresh all-time high has room to extend
Paying Article

March 18, 2024 8:14 AM UTC

Settled back from the all-time high at 2915 as prices consolidate the bullish breakout from 2075, the August 2020 year high

JPY flows: JPY steady ahead of BoJ
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March 18, 2024 8:08 AM UTC

JPY steady ahead of BoJ. Risk of tighter policy greater in April than in March, so modest JPY decline liekly on no policy change. Bigger JPY gains likely if BoJ tighten.

Chart EUR/AUD Update: Extending corrective bounce
Paying Article

March 18, 2024 6:33 AM UTC

Further extend gains from the 1.6455 support as prices retrace the sharp pullback from the 1.6745 high to reach 1.6600 level

Chart AUD/NZD Update: Extending gains
Paying Article

March 18, 2024 6:07 AM UTC

 Break above the 1.0750 congestion further extending gains to approach the 1.0800/12 resistance

Chart USD/INR Update: Lower in consolidation
Paying Article

March 18, 2024 5:53 AM UTC

Settled back from the 82.9625 high of Friday as prices consolidate rally from the 82.6485 low

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Bank Indonesia to Retain Policy Rate
Paying Article

March 18, 2024 5:40 AM UTC

Bank Indonesia (BI) will likely maintain the key 7-day reverse repo rate unchanged in March at 6%, in line with recent trends. The stability of the rupiah remains a crucial consideration for BI, alongside CPI inflation, which has moderated within the new target band of 2.5+/-1%. 

Asia Summary and Highlights 18 Mar
Freemium Article

March 18, 2024 5:16 AM UTC

Asia Session
The BoJ meeting will be conducted from Monday to Tuesday and market participants should be ready for any "leaks" coming out as they will be market moving. Some big names are forecasting a hike in the March meeting but we feel like the BoJ is in no rush to hike with headline CPI moderatin

FX Weekly Strategy: Europe, March 18th-22nd
Paying Article

March 18, 2024 5:12 AM UTC

FOMC the main focus – some risk of a USD positive impact
BoJ may signal the start of the tightening cycle
BoE can start to turn more dovish
SNB has potential to weaken the CHF

AUD/USD flows: No fireworks
Paying Article

March 18, 2024 5:06 AM UTC

No fireworks expected for the RBA meeting

Chart USD/MYR Update: Extending corrective bounce from 4.6750 low
Paying Article

March 18, 2024 4:56 AM UTC

 Extending gains from the 4.6750 low as prices correct losses from the February high

USD/JPY flows: Getting ready for "leaks"
Paying Article

March 18, 2024 4:49 AM UTC

BoJ meeting will be done by Tuesday but any "leaks" in the mean time will dominate market sentiment

Chartbook: Chart JP Nikkei Update: Poised for corrective pullback from 4-year channel resistance
Paying Article

March 18, 2024 4:02 AM UTC

Break above the November 2023 year high at 33853 at the start of the year has seen strong rally through the 38957, 1989 multi-year high.