Canada
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May 09, 2024
April 30, 2024
Canada February GDP - Q1 looking less positive than previously projected
April 30, 2024 1:20 PM UTC
February Canadian GDP saw a second straight rise, but at 0.2% was below the 0.4% projected with January’s data and January was revised down to a 0.5% increase from 0.6%. The advance estimate for March is unchanged, which would leave a 0.6% rise (2.5% annualized) in Q1.
April 24, 2024
Bank of Canada Minutes Look to Gradual Easing, Divided on When to Start
April 24, 2024 6:44 PM UTC
Bank of Canada minutes from the April 10 meeting confirm a greater confidence on inflation falling, though there is disagreement within the Governing Council over when policy easing will become appropriate. There was agreement that easing would probably be gradual given the risks to the outlook and
April 16, 2024
Canada March CPI a little firmer after two soft months, but BoC core rates continue to fall
April 16, 2024 12:53 PM UTC
March’s Canadian CPI has seen an as expected increase to 2.9% yr/yr from February’s unexpectedly softer 2.8%. On the month the seasonally adjusted data is a little firmer after two soft months but the Bank of Canada’s core rates continue to fall.
April 10, 2024
Bank of Canada Sees Progress in Reducing Inflation, June Easing Possible
April 10, 2024 3:37 PM UTC
The Bank of Canada made no policy changes with rates left at 5.0% and Quantitative Tightening continuing as expected. However the tone of the statement is significantly more optimistic on inflation, focusing more on this than recent signs of stronger activity. The BoC still needs to see progress on
April 03, 2024
April 02, 2024
Bank of Canada to Leave Rates Unchanged on April 10, Noting Stronger GDP and Slower CPI
April 2, 2024 5:45 PM UTC
The Bank of Canada meets on April 10 and no change in rates from the current 5.0% is likely. The BoC is likely to revise near term forecasts for GDP higher and CPI lower, and leave its options open for easing at future meetings, dependent on incoming data, without giving any clear signals on timing.
April 01, 2024
Canada - BoC Q1 Business Outlook Survey shows some easing in inflation expectations
April 1, 2024 2:53 PM UTC
The Bank of Canada’s Q1 business outlook survey shows some easing of inflation expectations while being mostly subdued on the economic picture. The BoC looks unlikely to ease on April 10 with Q1 GDP looking set to exceed expectations, but this survey helps to maintain hope that by June enough prog
March 28, 2024
Canada January GDP - Q1 looking much stronger than BoC had expected
March 28, 2024 1:31 PM UTC
Not only did January Canadian GDP with a 0.6% rise exceed the preliminary 0.4% estimate, in data assisted by the end of a strike, the advance estimate for February is strong too with a rise of 0.4%. If that proves correct even an unchanged March would leave Q1 up by 3.5% annualized, well above the B
March 27, 2024
March 26, 2024
March 25, 2024
March 21, 2024
March 19, 2024
Canada February CPI slows, BoC's Gravelle to speak on QT on Thursday
March 19, 2024 1:23 PM UTC
February’s Canadian CPI has seen an unexpected fall to 2.8% yr/yr from 2.9% in January and 3.4% in December, putting the series at its lowest since March 2021. While the Bank of Canada cannot claim victory yet, the data will provide encouragement that inflationary pressures are now fading. A spe
March 06, 2024
Bank of Canada Keeps Markets Waiting
March 6, 2024 6:49 PM UTC
The Bank of Canada left both rates (at 5.0%) and its forward guidance unchanged in its latest statement. A rate cut at the next meeting in April now looks unlikely, and while we continue to project a move in June it is now a close call between June and July for when the BoC starts to cut rates.
February 29, 2024
Bank of Canada to Leave Rates Unchanged on March 6, With a Cautious Statement
February 29, 2024 6:41 PM UTC
The Bank of Canada meets on March 6 and while any fine tuning to the statement is more likely to be dovish than hawkish, we doubt that views have changed much at the BoC since its last meeting on January 24. We expect rates to be left unchanged at 5.0% with few hints that easing is close to be given
February 07, 2024
Bank of Canada Minutes Detail Inflationary Concerns
February 7, 2024 7:39 PM UTC
The Bank of Canada’s minutes from January 24 show significant concern about the persistence of inflation, despite seeing the economy as having moved into excess supply due to slowing demand. This leaves the BoC unsure about when to cut rates, though further increases now look unlikely.
February 06, 2024
January 24, 2024
Bank of Canada Drops Tightening Bias
January 24, 2024 5:15 PM UTC
The Bank of Canada left rates at 5.0% as expected though the statement took a clearly more dovish tone, dropping a tightening bias though still expressing concern over persistently high inflation. Easing does not appear imminent but we now expect it to start in Q2 rather than Q3.
January 16, 2024
Bank of Canada Unlikely to Hint at Easing on January 24
January 16, 2024 7:25 PM UTC
The Bank of Canada meets on January 24 and rates look highly likely to remain unchanged at 5.0%. The statement is likely to see a similar tone to that on December 6 which no longer saw the economy as in excess demand but remained willing to raise the policy rate further if needed.
January 11, 2024
Webinar Recording December Outlook: Rate Cuts Into 2024
January 11, 2024 8:22 AM UTC
You can now access the webinar for the December Outlook here.
To read the individual chapters please see the weblink below.
Outlook Overview: Rate Cuts Into 2024 (here)
U.S. Outlook: Slower Growth to Sustain Improved Inflation Picture (here)
LatAm Outlook: Diverging Paths in 2024 (here)
China Outloo
January 08, 2024
Charting our Views December Outlook
January 8, 2024 9:05 AM UTC
Outlook Overview: Rate Cuts Into 2024 (here)
Economic Scenarios
U.S. Outlook: Slower Growth to Sustain Improved Inflation Picture (here)
LatAm Outlook: Diverging Paths in 2024 (here)
Brazil Policy Rate and CPI Inflation (YoY, %)
China Outlook: Headwinds To China Growth (here)
Japan Outlook: Normalizing
January 05, 2024
Canada December Employment stagnates but wage growth accelerates sharply
January 5, 2024 2:18 PM UTC
While Canada’s employment data may look subdued, there was a sharp acceleration in wage growth, the yr/yr gain in hourly wages for permanent employees up to 5.7% yr/yr from 5.0%. This maintains a recent picture of Canadian inflationary pressures being more stubborn than those in the U.S.
This is de
January 02, 2024
December Outlook: Rate Cuts Into 2024
January 2, 2024 9:53 AM UTC
Outlook Overview: Rate Cuts Into 2024 (here)
U.S. Outlook: Slower Growth to Sustain Improved Inflation Picture (here)
LatAm Outlook: Diverging Paths in 2024 (here)
China Outlook: Headwinds To China Growth (here)
Japan Outlook: Normalizing Monetary Policy Soon (here)
Asia/Pacific (ex-China/Japan) Outlook:
December 19, 2023
December 18, 2023
Outlook Overview: Rate Cuts Into 2024
December 18, 2023 3:42 PM UTC
· Uncertainty still prevails around this central view. The impact of lagged monetary tightening could be greater than our estimates and deliver mild recessions in some DM countries. We also feel that the disinflationary process could be stronger and this would help bring inflation back
December 15, 2023
December 11, 2023
Preview: Due December 22 - Canada October GDP - Strongest rise since May
December 11, 2023 4:45 PM UTC
We expect services to maintain a very subdued trend with a rise of 0.1% but goods to increase by 0.4%, a second straight increase to follow five straight declines. The goods increase is likely to be led by mining, in a rebound from a weak September, and construction. We do not expect manufacturing t
December 08, 2023
This week's five highlights
December 8, 2023 10:34 AM UTC
U.S. November NFP Likely firmer due to returning strikers
USD/JPY Slumped on Ueda's Speech
Bank of Canada Tightening Bias Persists but is Reduced
USD/CAD Slipping on Weak Oil
RBA Continue to be data dependent
We expect a 200k increase in November's non-farm payroll, stronger than October's 150k though ex
December 06, 2023
Bank of Canada Tightening Bias Persists but is Reduced
December 6, 2023 3:44 PM UTC
The BoC states that economic growth stalled in the middle quarters of 2023, which gives roughly equal weight to a negative Q3 and an upwardly revised positive in Q2, appropriately with momentum stabilizing in late Q3 to suggest a broadly flat picture. However the BoC concludes that the economy is no
December 01, 2023
Bank of Canada to Leave Rates Unchanged With Mild Tightening Bias
December 1, 2023 2:46 PM UTC
The October 25 statement saw clearer signs that monetary policy is moderating spending and relieving price pressures, and with Q3 GDP showing an unexpected decline of 1.1% annualized, well below an October BoC forecast for a 0.8% increase, that assessment is likely to persist. However the Q3 decline
November 08, 2023
Bank of Canada Agreed to Hold on October 25, but Split on Future
November 8, 2023 7:12 PM UTC
The views outlined above may look similar to what we will hear from FOMC minutes from their November 1 meeting on November 21, despite the fact that momentum in the Canadian economy has stalled to near zero while US GDP saw a strong advance in Q3. There may even be more at the BoC expecting further
October 25, 2023
Bank of Canada Forecast Fine Tuned, Easing Later but Faster in 2024
October 25, 2023 5:06 PM UTC
The BoC’s updated view
The BoC stated that there is growing evidence that past interest rate increases are dampening economic activity and relieving price pressures. There can be little doubt over the first conclusion given recent GDP data, but that the BoC felt able to make the second conclusion i
October 17, 2023
Bank of Canada to Hold Rates on October 25, Won’t Signal Rates Have Peaked
October 17, 2023 4:34 PM UTC
A quarterly Monetary Policy Report is due at the meeting. This will confirm that Q3 GDP at -0.2% annualized significantly underperformed a 1.5% forecast made with July’s MPR, and that Q3 CPI, averaging 3.7% yr/yr, significantly exceeded July’s 3.3% projection. Q3 GDP appears to be tracking below
October 06, 2023
Canada September Employment: Unimpressive Detail but BoC Tightening Risks Increase
October 6, 2023 1:30 PM UTC
Most of the rise in employment came from a 47.9k increase in part time work, with full time up a moderate 15.8k. The public sector with a rise of 36.6k also explained over half of the increase. With self-employment up by 26.1k private sector employment increased by a minimal 1.1k. Educational servic
September 06, 2023
Bank of Canada Pauses as GDP Slips but Remains Worried About Inflation
September 6, 2023 2:47 PM UTC
The BoC stated that given signs of easing excess demand and given policy lags they decided to hold the rate at 5.0% but they go on to say that they are concerned about persistent underling inflationary pressures and are prepared to tighten further if needed. While we expect the BoC to keep rates at
September 01, 2023
Subdued Underlying Canadian GDP Picture Justifies a BoC Rates Pause
September 1, 2023 1:33 PM UTC
Household consumption slowed to a 0.2% pace from 4.7% in Q1 as retail sales data had already implied. The consumer picture has been generally subdued apart from a very strong January inflated by mild weather. Gross fixed capital formation rise by 1.6% after a 5.3% Q1 decline, and given that housing
August 29, 2023
Bank of Canada to Hold Rates on September 6, Awaiting Further Data
August 29, 2023 5:40 PM UTC
The Bank of Canada meets on September 6 and looks likely to leave rates at 5.0%, after tightening by 25bps in its preceding two meetings, assuming Q2 GDP data due on September 1 shows the expected signs of slowing. The statement however is likely to make it clear that further tightening is possible
July 12, 2023
Bank of Canada Would Consider Tightening Further if Inflation Remains Stubborn
July 12, 2023 4:22 PM UTC
The statement welcomed a slower May CPI outcome but saw downward momentum in inflation as largely from energy. It added that with three-month core rates rising around 3.5-4.5% since September underlying price pressures appear more persistent than anticipated. The BoC now sees inflation running aroun
July 03, 2023
Bank of Canada Preview: Close Call For a 25bps Tightening
July 3, 2023 3:12 PM UTC
After tightening by 425bps to 4.50% in the 12 months to January 2023, the BoC paused at its March and April meetings, before resuming tightening with a 25bps move in June. The statement released in June noted stronger than expected data from both growth and inflation and concluded that policy was no
June 21, 2023
BoC June Deliberations Focused on Consumer and Core Inflation Strength
June 21, 2023 6:04 PM UTC
Global growth as seen as moving in line with expectations but resilience in core inflation, and in North America, consumer spending, was noted. Turning to Canada, the BoC stressed the strength of consumption within the stronger than expected Q1 GDP release but did see some signs of easing in labor m
June 07, 2023
Bank of Canada Resumes Tightening, Hawkish Tone Suggests Scope For More
June 7, 2023 2:43 PM UTC
In detailing a stronger than expected 3.1% annualized rise in GDP the BoC notes strength in consumption, increasing demand for interest-sensitive goods and a pick-up in housing activity, before going onto note labor market strength and concluding that excess demand looks more persistent than anticip
May 31, 2023
Bank of Canada Preview for June 7: Maintaining a Tightening Bias
May 31, 2023 4:08 PM UTC
The policy rate currently stands at 4.5%, with the last two meetings, on March 8 and April 12, having seen rates left unchanged. Since the April 12 meeting Canadian CPI slipped from 5.2% in February to 4.3% in March, but unexpectedly corrected higher to 4.4% in April. The core rates did however cont