North American Summary and Highlights 25 Mar

March 25, 2024 7:17 PM UTC

Overview - In a quiet day the USD ended mostly weaker, though USD/JPY was an exception to this.  

FX Weekly Strategy: March 25th-29th

March 25, 2024 9:52 AM UTC

Market to focus on the aftermath of last week’s central bank meetings
USD/JPY may break to new high but break unlikely to be sustained
EUR/USD unlikely to start far from recent ranges
GBP may extend losses as market considers possibility of earlier rate cut
NOK/SEK may gain if Riksbank turns more dovi

North American Summary and Highlights 22 Mar

March 22, 2024 7:35 PM UTC

Overview - Apart from a brief slide in USD/JPY, the USD was generally firmer on a quiet Friday. 

This week's five highlights

March 22, 2024 10:00 AM UTC

FOMC Dots and economic forecasts marginally more hawkish
BoJ Bring Interest Rate To Zero
SNB Surprise with 25bps Rate Cut
BoE's Easing Bias Continues
RBA Holds as Expected 

North America Summary and Highlights 15 Jan

January 15, 2024 5:04 PM UTC

North American sessionA generally quiet North American session due to the US holiday saw relatively little FX movement. However, the Bank of Canada’s Q4 business and consumer surveys made for some interesting reading. The business survey showed clear signs of weakness. A net 39% of firms said thei

Psychology for major markets 15 Jan

January 15, 2024 11:11 AM UTC

EUR/USD – EUR/USD holding in the 1.09-1.10 range for now. Divergence between ECB and Fed monetary policy expectations looks necessary to break the range, unless we see a significant change in risk sentiment.USD/JPY – USD/JPY running out of steam a bit near 146 and has overshot yield spread moves

FX Weekly Strategy: January 15th-19th

January 15, 2024 10:04 AM UTC

Reactions to US inflation data suggest limited upside for US yieldsPeriod of consolidation likely in EUR/USDScope for GBP to weaken given less dovish market pricing of the BoEJPY still the stand-out value play

Asia Summary and Highlights 15 Jan

January 15, 2024 6:11 AM UTC

Asia Session
Houthis fired an anti-ship cruise missile at a US Navy ship that was hot down by a U.S. fighter jet near the coast of Yemen and has not done any harm. This no doubt further escalates the geopolitical tension in the area as it is hard to see either the Houthis and U.S. to back down from t

North America Summary and Highlights 12 Jan

January 12, 2024 4:23 PM UTC

North American sessionThe USD fell back sharply through the North American session, responding to weaker than expected PPI data. USD/JPY was the biggest mover, falling a big figure to trade below 144.50, but the AUD and CHF also made strong gains. EUR/USD and GBP/USD gains were more modest, as Europ

Psychology for major markets 12 Jan

January 12, 2024 11:16 AM UTC

EUR/USD – EUR/USD holding in the 1.09-1.10 range for now despite stronger US CPI. Divergence between ECB and Fed monetary policy expectations looks necessary to break the range.USD/JPY – USD/JPY running out of steam a bit near 146 and has overshot yield spread moves, but weaker risk sentiment ne

This week's five highlights

January 12, 2024 10:00 AM UTC

Geopolitical conflict once again seize the headline again as the U.S. and UK launched airstrikes against Houthi targets in Yemen while Australia, the Netherlands, Bahrain, and Canada supported. Dozens of targets including training and drone storage facilities were stroke with the U.S. and UK launchi

Asia Summary and Highlights 12 Jan

January 12, 2024 5:47 AM UTC

Asia Session
Geopolitical conflict once again seize the headline again as the U.S. and UK launched airstrikes against Houthi targets in Yemen while Australia, the Netherlands, Bahrain, and Canada supported. Soon after the airstrike report, the United States Embassy in Iraq was also reported to be bom

North America Summary and Highlights 11 Jan

January 11, 2024 4:32 PM UTC

North American sessionThe USD gained ground through the North American session, benefiting from a stronger than expected December CPI print along with another fall in continuing jobless claims and still low initial jobless claims. December CPI saw 0.3% rises in both the headline and core measures. M

Psychology for major markets 11 Jan

January 11, 2024 11:08 AM UTC

EUR/USD – EUR/USD holding in the 1.09-1.10 range for now. Focus on the US CPI data on Thursday with USD risks slightly weighted to the downside. An upside surprise on CPI looks less likely, but the market might be more sensitive to it.USD/JPY – USD/JPY running out of steam a bit near 146 and has

North America Summary and Highlights 9 Jan

January 9, 2024 4:21 PM UTC

North American sessionThe USD advanced through the North American session, gaining around 0.3% across the board. EUR/USD dropped to test the 1.09 support area, while USD/JPY moved back up to 144.40 after resisting the firmer USD tone through the European morning. The USD benefited from the stronger

Asia Summary and Highlights 9 Jan

January 9, 2024 2:02 PM UTC

European Session
The USD edged slightly higher through the European morning, with only USD/JPY little changed. EUR/USD fell around 20 pips to 1.0930, and most other currencies saw a similar dip against the USD. USD/JPY was little changed around 144.German industrial production data early in the sessi

FX Weekly Strategy: January 8th-12th

January 8, 2024 9:56 AM UTC

USD to correct lower into US CPI, particularly against the JPYEUR likely to struggle to regain 1.10CHF strength likely to waneGBP can correct lower on UK GDP

AUD, CHF, JPY flows: AUD dips, CHF firm

January 8, 2024 7:50 AM UTC

The weakness in Chinese equities due to the bankruptcy of the Chinese wealth manager Zhongzhi announced over the weekend is likely to keep the riskier currencies on the back foot in early trade, particularly the AUD.  Zhongzhi was exposed to the Chinese property sector, and while its demise is not

This week's five highlights

January 5, 2024 10:00 AM UTC

FOMC minutes from December 13 show that while almost all participants expect lower rates to be seen by the end of 2024, they want forecasts to be treated cautiously at this point. Caution over easing and increased confidence that progress is being made on inflation are however both clear in the minu

FX Daily Strategy: N America, January 5th

January 5, 2024 9:55 AM UTC

US employment risks slightly on the strong sideUSD to remain well supportedEUR may fall back as core inflation continues to easeCHF strength looks overdone
The US employment report dominates Friday’s calendar. We expect a 175k increase in December’s non-farm payroll, with private payrolls up by 1

North American Summary and Highlights 4 Jan

January 4, 2024 8:20 PM UTC

North American sessionThe USD was generally firmer through the North American session, gaining ground primarily against the JPY. USD/JPY rose around 40 pips to 144.60. EUR/USD was not much changed at 1.0950, but the USD made small gains against the AUD and CAD as well. USD gains were helped by stro

FX Daily Strategy: Europe, January 4th

January 4, 2024 5:53 AM UTC

December German inflation to bounce, but less than expectedEUR/USD consequently vulnerableGBP may weaken after strong gains on WednesdayJPY weakness looks overdone medium term
Preliminary French and German December CPI are due on Thursday, along with US ADP employment and the usual claims data. There

North American Summary and Highlights 3 Jan

January 3, 2024 8:45 PM UTC

North American sessionThe USD gained across the board through the North American session, with USD/JPY making the most pronounced move, rising around 90 pips to a high of 143.73, before correcting to around 143.25 after the FOMC minutes. Other currencies declined more modestly. EUR/USD saw a brief m

FX Daily Strategy: N America, January 3rd

January 3, 2024 10:03 AM UTC

US ISM and JOLTS in focus
EUR/USD close to fair near 1.0950
JPY has upside scope against CAD and CHF
The US manufacturing ISM data is the main release on Wednesday.  We expect a December ISM manufacturing index of 47.5, up from two straight months at 46.7 which generally underperformed most comparable