Published: 2024-03-28T14:14:09.000Z
U.S. February Pending Home Sales and March Michigan CSI rise, March Chicago PMI slips
Senior Economist , North America
2
February’s 1.6% rise in pending home sales is in line with expectations but a modest one after January’s 4.7% decline and makes a strong February increase in existing home sales look difficult to sustain. February saw a strong rise in existing home sales in 2023 too, which was not extended.
March’s final Michigan CSI saw an unusually large upward revision to 79.4 from 76.5, moving above February’s 76.9 and January’s 79.0 to reach its highest level since July 2021. However inflation expectations were revised down, the 1-year view to 2.9% from 3.0% and the 5-10 year view to 2.8% from 2.9%, both near the bottom of their recent ranges.
March’s Chicago PMI of 4.4 from 44.0 was very weak, and weaker than most regional Fed surveys, even if the latter have mostly softened from improved Januarys. The S and P manufacturing PMI is however positive, and we expect a stronger ISM manufacturing index of 49.5, assisted by seasonal adjustments.