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May 13, 2024

FX Daily Strategy: Asia, May 14th
Paying Article

May 13, 2024 9:00 PM UTC

GBP focus on earnings data
Upside risks seen for EUR/GBP
US NFIB data could support softer USD tone

North American Summary and Highlights 13 May
Freemium Article

May 13, 2024 7:26 PM UTC

Overview - The USD advanced versus JPY on higher US inflation expectations but slipped versus GBP and EUR. 

USD flows: USD lifted by higher New York Fed inflation expectauons
Paying Article

May 13, 2024 3:26 PM UTC

The USD has seen a bounce on the New York Fed’s April survey of consumer inflation expectations, showing market sensitivity to the issue. This reinforces a message of stronger inflation expectations in May’s preliminary Michigan CSI report on Friday.

FX Daily Strategy: APAC, May 14th
Paying Article

May 13, 2024 3:13 PM UTC

GBP focus on earnings data
Upside risks seen for EUR/GBP
US NFIB data could support softer USD tone

Preview: Due May 14 - U.S. April PPI - New Year strength fading
Paying Article

May 13, 2024 12:26 PM UTC

We expect a 0.3% increase in April’s PPI, with gains of 0.2% in the core rates ex food and energy and ex food, energy and trade. The core rates would match March’s outcome which slowed from above trend gains in January and February. 

European Summary and Highlights 13 May
Paying Article

May 13, 2024 10:18 AM UTC

EUR/USD gained around 15 pips and USD/JPY gained around 10 pips in a quiet European morning session.

Psychology for major markets May 13th
Paying Article

May 13, 2024 10:12 AM UTC

USD starting to edge lower

FX Weekly Strategy: May 13th-17th
Paying Article

May 13, 2024 9:10 AM UTC

Scope for EUR/USD to break higher
Focus on US CPI data
GBP/USD may return to previous correlation
JPY still has most potential for recovery

USD, JPY flows: FX steady but USD downside risks rising
Paying Article

May 13, 2024 6:37 AM UTC

USD steady in quiet trading but rising JGB yields and softer US data suggest USD/JPY downside risks

Asia Summary and Highlights 13 May
Freemium Article

May 13, 2024 5:05 AM UTC

Japan's Kato says its natural that monetary policy will revert to positive interest rates
China's April CPI +0.3% y/y vs. +0.1% expected

FX Weekly Strategy: Europe, May 13th-17th
Paying Article

May 13, 2024 5:01 AM UTC

Scope for EUR/USD to break higher
Focus on US CPI data
GBP/USD may return to previous correlation
JPY still has most potential for recovery

AUD/USD flows: Soft regional sentiment
Paying Article

May 13, 2024 5:00 AM UTC

China to switch off real-time info on foreign flows in stocks today
China plans to issue special ultra-long term treasury bonds to raise 1 trillion yuan
China's April CPI +0.3% y/y vs. +0.1% expected

USD/JPY flows: BoJ Purchase decrease and Kato's remark Affecting JPY
Paying Article

May 13, 2024 4:37 AM UTC

Japan's Kato says its natural that monetary policy will revert to positive interest rates
Bank of Japan has reduced the amount of 5-10yr JGBs purchased in its latest operation from 475bn JPY to 425bn JPY, comparing to last operation.

Asia Open - Overnight Highlights
Paying Article

May 13, 2024 12:00 AM UTC

EMERGING ASIA
EM currencies perform individually against the USD as the greenback reversed earlier losses on more hawkish market sentiment. THB saw the largest gains of 0.59%, followed by KRW 0.14%, TWD 0.12%, MYR 0.03% and INR & HKD 0.01%; the biggest losers are CNH & SGD 0.16% CNY 0.1% and IDR 0.08

May 12, 2024

FX Weekly Strategy: Asia, May 13th-17th
Paying Article

May 12, 2024 9:00 PM UTC

Scope for EUR/USD to break higher
Focus on US CPI data
GBP/USD may return to previous correlation
JPY still has most potential for recovery

FX Weekly Strategy: APAC, May 13th-17th
Paying Article

May 12, 2024 5:00 PM UTC

Scope for EUR/USD to break higher
Focus on US CPI data
GBP/USD may return to previous correlation
JPY still has most potential for recovery

May 10, 2024

North American Summary and Highlights 10 May
Freemium Article

May 10, 2024 6:42 PM UTC

Overview - UK and Canadian data lifted the GBP and CAD but the USD was little changed overall.  

FX Weekly Strategy: May 13th-17th
Paying Article

May 10, 2024 3:00 PM UTC

Scope for EUR/USD to break higher
Focus on US CPI data
GBP/USD may return to previous correlation
JPY still has most potential for recovery

Preview: Due May 21 - Canada April CPI - Headline stable but BoC core rates falling
Paying Article

May 10, 2024 2:44 PM UTC

April CPI will be closely watched as the last CPI release before the June 5 Bank of Canada meeting. We expect the yr/yr pace to be unchanged from January at 2.9% which was also the pace in January before February saw a brief dip to 2.8%. However we expect continued steady downward progress in the Bo

USD flows: USD softer after weak UoM confidence
Paying Article

May 10, 2024 2:22 PM UTC

University of Michigan confidence data shows sharp decline - USD may come under more pressure

U.S. May Michigan CSI - Lowest since November, inflation expectations highest since November
Paying Article

May 10, 2024 2:12 PM UTC

May’s preliminary Michigan CSI of 67.4 from 77.2 is the weakest since November 2023 and hints at a loss of momentum in the economy, but with higher inflation expectations, the 1-year view up significantly to 3.5% from 3.2% and the 5-10 year view up marginally to 3.1% from 3.0%.

CAD flows: CAD firmer after stronger employment data
Paying Article

May 10, 2024 1:12 PM UTC

Strogner employment data pushes CAD yields up and USD/CAD lower. But still a good chance of a June rate cut so risks may be to the CAD downside

Canada April Employment - Trend still solid, suggesting no urgency for BoC easing
Paying Article

May 10, 2024 12:58 PM UTC

Canada’s 90.4k increase in April employment is well above expectations and raises doubt over the case for a June rate cut, this being the last employment report the Bank of Canada will see before its June 5 meeting. Unemployment was unchanged at 6.1% but wage growth (hourly wage fir permanent empl

European Summary and Highlights 10 May
Paying Article

May 10, 2024 10:12 AM UTC

GBP was slightly firmer in the European morning, following the stronger than expected Q1 UK GDP data which showed a rise of 0.6% against market expectations of a 0.4% increase.

Psychology for major markets May 10th
Paying Article

May 10, 2024 10:09 AM UTC

USD starting to edge lower

This week's five highlights
Paying Article

May 10, 2024 10:00 AM UTC

Ukraine War Update
This Week's Fed Speakers
U.S. Initial Claims rise but signs of labor market slowing still tentative
RBA Change wordings of guidance but no change in heart
UK GDP Shows Clearer Growth Momentum But Mainly Import Led

FX Daily Strategy: N America, May 10th
Paying Article

May 10, 2024 9:04 AM UTC

GBP recovers after UK GDP
NOK edged higher on CPI
CAD may start to underperform on the crosses
USD strength to start to wane

NOK flows: NOK edges higher after CPI
Paying Article

May 10, 2024 6:53 AM UTC

Norway CPI mildly stronger than expected, suggesting scope for NOK gains

GBP flows: GBP recovers on stronger GDP
Paying Article

May 10, 2024 6:41 AM UTC

UK GDP rises a better than expected 0.6% in Q1, but breakdown looks suspicious. Nevertheless, GBP likely to hold firm short term

Asia Summary and Highlights 10 May
Freemium Article

May 10, 2024 5:03 AM UTC

The US planning to impose tariffs on EVs from China after review

FX Daily Strategy: Europe, May 10th
Paying Article

May 10, 2024 5:01 AM UTC

GBP unlikely to extend losses on UK GDP
More risk of NOK gains than losses on CPI
CAD may start to underperform on the crosses
USD strength to start to wane

AUD/USD flows: Slips on U.S. EV sanction news
Paying Article

May 10, 2024 4:59 AM UTC

The US planning to impose tariffs on EVs from China after review

USD/JPY flows: Household spending rebounds
Paying Article

May 10, 2024 3:39 AM UTC

Jawboning continues
Japan March Household Spending +1.2% m/m (expected -0.3%)

Asia Open - Overnight Highlights
Paying Article

May 10, 2024 12:00 AM UTC

EMERGING ASIA
EM currencies perform individually against the USD as the greenback reversed its earlier gains on higher initial claim figure. KRW saw the largest losses of 0.52%, followed by TWD 0.14%; the biggest winners are SGD 0.22% CNH 0.1%, CNY 0.07%, THB 0.06%, HKD 0.04%, INR and MYR 0.01%.
USD/C

May 09, 2024

FX Daily Strategy: Asia, May 10th
Paying Article

May 9, 2024 9:00 PM UTC

GBP unlikely to extend losses on UK GDP
More risk of NOK gains than losses on CPI
CAD may start to underperform on the crosses
USD strength to start to wane

North American Summary and Highlights 9 May
Freemium Article

May 9, 2024 7:23 PM UTC

Overview - The GBP slipped on the BoE decision but the USD ended softer across the board after a rise in initial jobless claims.  

FX Daily Strategy: APAC, May 10th
Paying Article

May 9, 2024 3:15 PM UTC

GBP unlikely to extend losses on UK GDP
More risk of NOK gains than losses on CPI
CAD may start to underperform on the crosses
USD strength to start to wane

USD flows: USD slips lower on higher initial claims
Paying Article

May 9, 2024 1:04 PM UTC

Initial claims highest since August, USD lower with yields

U.S. Initial Claims rise but signs of labor market slowing still tentative
Paying Article

May 9, 2024 12:44 PM UTC

Initial claims at 231k from 209k in the first week of May are the highest since August 26, and coming after a slower payroll gain for April add to what remain tentative hints of labor market cooling.

GBP flows: GBP weakens as 2 MPC members vote for a rate cut
Paying Article

May 9, 2024 11:19 AM UTC

UK rates left unchanged, but deputy governor Ramsden joins Dhingra in voting for a cut.

European Summary and Highlights 09 May
Paying Article

May 9, 2024 11:12 AM UTC

The USD edged higher through the European morning, gaining a little ground against everything but GBP, with GBP/USD little changed. 

Psychology for major markets May 9th
Paying Article

May 9, 2024 10:05 AM UTC

USD mostly steady but JPY edging lower again despite intervention threat

FX Daily Strategy: N America, May 9th
Paying Article

May 9, 2024 8:57 AM UTC

Some risk of more dovish BoE stance
EUR/GBP risks to the upside
JPY weakness looks unlikely to persist
US jobless claims the US data focus

JPY flows: JPY still soft despite hawkish BoJ
Paying Article

May 9, 2024 6:35 AM UTC

Boj sounded hawkish, but JPY softer as cash earnings disappoint. 

Asia Summary and Highlights 9 May
Freemium Article

May 9, 2024 5:59 AM UTC

BoJ summary of opinion shows more hawkish members but March wage data disappoints

USD/JPY flows: Continue to be higher after BoJ summary of opinion
Paying Article

May 9, 2024 5:59 AM UTC

BoJ summary of opinion shows more hawkish members
But March wage data disappoints

FX Daily Strategy: Europe, May 9th
Paying Article

May 9, 2024 5:53 AM UTC

Some risk of more dovish BoE stance
EUR/GBP risks to the upside
JPY weakness looks unlikely to persist
US jobless claims the US data focus

May 08, 2024

FX Daily Strategy: Asia, May 9th
Paying Article

May 8, 2024 9:00 PM UTC

Some risk of more dovish BoE stance
EUR/GBP risks to the upside
JPY weakness looks unlikely to persist
US jobless claims the US data focus

North American Summary and Highlights 8 May
Freemium Article

May 8, 2024 7:29 PM UTC

Overview - The highlight of a quiet session was modest SEK losses after a 25bps Riksbank easing.  

FX Daily Strategy: APAC, May 9th
Paying Article

May 8, 2024 3:11 PM UTC

Some risk of more dovish BoE stance
EUR/GBP risks to the upside
JPY weakness looks unlikely to persist
US jobless claims the US data focus